EARLY predictions for the upcoming 2013 Bears season!

DATE	OPPONENT	TIME	TV
9/8	CINCINNATI	Noon	CBS
9/15	MINNESOTA	Noon	FOX
9/22	at Pittsburgh	7:30 p.m.	NBC
9/29	at Detroit	Noon	FOX
10/6	NEW ORLEANS	Noon	FOX
10/10	NEW YORK	7:25 p.m.	NFLN
10/20	at Washington	Noon	FOX
10/27	OPEN DATE
11/4	at Green Bay	7:40 p.m.	ESPN
11/10	DETROIT	Noon	FOX
11/17	BALTIMORE	Noon-*	CBS
11/24	at St. Louis	Noon-*	FOX
12/1	at Minnesota	Noon-*	FOX
12/9	DALLAS	7:40 p.m.	ESPN
12/15	at Cleveland	Noon-*	FOX
12/22	at Philadelphia	Noon-*	FOX
12/29	GREEN BAY	Noon-*	FOX

Here are my EARLY picks--let me know what you think!

Week 1--Vs. Cincinnati: Home Openers tend to give a big edge to the home team.  Bears win a surprisingly high-scoring affair, with Matt Forte coming up big. BEARS 1-0
Week 2--Vs. Minnesota: Big time revenge game for the Bears defense, as they let a late season home game slip away last year.  May have been what kept them home from the playoffs, got their coach fired, and cost them #54 (?). Bears force 3 turnovers to win big. BEARS 2-0
Week 3--At Pittsburgh: Steelers are a team in decline this year, Bears offense wins a game for them (which they have rarely been able to do in the past).  Mark it down: Steelers finish 6-10 or worse this year. BEARS 3-0
Week 4--At Detroit: Revenge game for Detroit.  They'll be healthy and give the Bears their first loss of the year. BEARS 3-1
Week 5--Vs. New Orleans: Bears will be better equipped to compete in "shoot out" type games like this one will be, but will come up just a little bit short.  I see a score like 35-32. BEARS 3-2
Week 6--Vs. New York Giants: Home Openers tend to give a big edge to the home team, and so do home Thursday night games.  The Bears will match up well with this team, and will pick off Eli twice.  BEARS 4-2
Week 7--At Washington: RG111 will be injured, but this will still be a tough game against Cousins.  Don't like this game on the road. BEARS 4-3
Week 9--At Green Bay: Picking a split this year.  Bears have not looked good in recent years up in Green Bay.  Cutler will look better with the new coaching staff, but the Bears will still come up short on the road. BEARS 4-4
Week 10--Vs. Detroit: Bears even up the season series with a big win.  3 plus touchdown passes for Cutler. BEARS 5-4
Week 11--Vs. Baltimore: Like this matchup for the Bears.  Ravens will take a step back this year.  Critical home win to keep the Bears well in the playoff hunt. BEARS 6-4
Week 12--At St. Louis: Rams are improving, but this will be one the Bears have to have. BEARS 7-4
Week 13--At Minnesota: Minnesota has been a House of Horrors.  Vikings pick up the season split at home. BEARS 7-5
Week 14--Dallas: Another must-win late-season conference home game.  Bears have handled Romo as recently as last year. BEARS 8-5
Week 15--At Cleveland: Browns don't have enough playmakers to exploit a potentially depleted Bears defense by this point of the season.  Bears put 8 in the box and bottle up Richardson.
BEARS 9-5
Week 16--At Philadelphia: The Bears have won a bunch of close, hard-fought games against the Eagles in the last 5-6 years.  Eagles are due to grab one in this matchup at home.
BEARS 9-6
Week 17--Vs. Green Bay: Marc Trestman begins to cement an offensive legacy with a playoff clinching win at home against the hated Pack. BEARS 10-6

Calm down people!!

The Bears lose a frustrating game that they shouldn't lose (usually a home game for whatever reason) every year.  Even in their Super Bowl run in '06, they were humiliated at home by the Miami Dolphins, who were no juggernaut.  Please keep in mind the following, perhaps after taking a few deep, cleansing breaths:

• The Chicago Bears are 8-4.
• The team they are fighting with for first place, the Green Bay Packers, are also 8-4.
• The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers play in 9 days.
• At Soldier Field, Chicago.
• If the Bears win their last 4 games (they will be favored in at least 3 of the 4), they will finish as the #2 seed in the NFC (provided the San Francisco 49ers lose to the New England Patriots). 
• That game is at New England, in 9 days.
• If you do the math, the Bears have a high probability of being the #2 seed in the NFC in 9 days.
• To hold that, they would need to beat the Arizona Cardinals and Detroit Lions.
• Alshon Jeffery will be back this week, which will have an immense positive impact on the offense.
• Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall.  That's all I'm going to say about that.
• Matt Forte is getting healthier.
• Gabe Carimi may actually know how to play Guard.
• Brian Urlacher will be back for the playoffs.  And next year. 

I'm going with the same prediction I had last time for Bears-Vikings, plus 3 for Minnesota since they're at home.  Bears 31 Vikes 16

The Hopeful Bears Fan is back!

Why are we football fans? There are a lot of potential answers, and while most of them have merit, the best response is simple: it can make us feel really good.  It makes us feel good to have a shared interest with our family, friends, coworkers, and community.  But more than that, it is an interest that is not pre-ordained (and thus completely unpredictable), has a fairly simple and objective outcome,  and is something that most of us have at least a small amount of experience doing (which makes it relatable).

So, why then, is there so much negativity surrounding being a fan?  Why do newspapers, sports radio, and television draw on the negative aspects of the sport more than the positive?  Why are people like Skip Bayless, Jay Mariotti, Tony Kornheiser, and Steve Rosenbloom gainfully employed?  What makes people feel good about trashing their team?  I understand that it can be a defense mechanism, and that Chicagoans in particular are on their guard (especially Cubs fans such as yours truly).  But why, when we have a 7-3 team in the middle of a potential playoff and Super Bowl run, does everyone jump ship?  Isn't week 12, when our team is tied for first place and about to take on a tough divisional rival, what we live for as fans?  Shouldn't Chicago, and thus the people covering the team, be filled with joyous anticipation for tomorrow?

Well, I am.  I see a decisive Bears victory tomorrow, and here's why:

• Motivation. The Bears defense is focused and determined to prove that they are not what we saw in San Francisco.  This defense is Super Bowl-ready, and the veterans know that the window is closing.
• History.  Even when the Bears have had awful teams, they usually manage to take care of business against Minnesota at home.
• Injuries.  Jay Cutler is back and Percy Harvin is out.
• Coaching.  Lovie Smith knows how to reach this team, and this has lead to many victories following disappointing losses.
• Talent.  The Bears outclass the Vikings at QB, WR, DE, DT, LB, CB, and S.  Not to mention Special Teams.

It's good to be back.  If you have a choice between being positive and being negative, as a fan, doesn't it just make you feel good to be positive?  Bears 31 Vikings 13

Here's Something REALLY Controversial...

I haven't written about my Bears for a while.  But, the media was SO IDIOTIC this week that I had to get some things off my chest.  So here goes nothing...

One of the best things about NFL football is the anticipation that goes along with only having 1 game a week.  One of the worst things about NFL football is the ridiculous, reaching stories that pompous, smug NFL media members have to make up during the week to fill the dead space.  Here are some of the huge "controversies" of this week, and why they are a ridiculous waste of time:
1) Jay Cutler cussing out Mike Martz
Cutler was caught on camera last weekend saying "Tell him I said to go fuck himself", seemingly referring to Mike Martz.  The play came after a drop by Devin Hester and before a draw play on a third and 7 with the Bears up by 20 in the third quarter.  Does this make Cutler a bad leader?  No way, and here is why:
 -Cutler was FIRED UP.  Isn't that what Bears fans have been looking for from him?  What was all the talk of poor body language and being disengaged and how that made Cutler a poor leader?  Now that he is engaged and being actively involved with the offense and providing input he feels is needed in order for the offense to succeed, this is suddenly a bad thing because he used a naughty word?  Have any of these idiots ever watched Tom Brady's demeanor during a game?  The GOD himself is yelling and bitching at anyone who is within earshot. In the words of the awful ESPN Sunday NFL Countdown crew, "C'MON MAN!"
-Cutler is the first GOOD quarterback of my adult life to play for the Bears.  Why is the media picking away at him over STUPID SHIT?  What is their agenda here?  We as fans need to back our guy, Jay Cutler, and let him know it.  He is a building block for the next 5-8 years for the Bears, we need to support Cutler and let him know that the media does not define our opinion of him.  If we don't, he'll leave at the first opportunity and we'll have another 20 years of bad to mediocre QB play.
2) When the Bears leave for London
-Having traveled abroad a few times, I know how it feels to be jet lagged.  But these guys are world-class athletes, will have 60+ hours to get acclimated, and will be on a strict schedule designed to allow them to do so.  This is a complete non-story--if the Bears lose it will have nothing to do with flying out tonight instead of Monday or Tuesday.

SO, let's talk about what matters--the players on the field.  Here is why the Bears will win 27-20:
-No LaGarrette Blount.  Earnest Graham doesn't scare me.
-Bucs defense is average at best--only 10 sacks this year plays to the Bears weakness.
-Cutler is on a roll, and together with Martz they have found a way to maximize what they have on offense (and Roy Williams will continue to be involved as he was on Sunday).
-The defense has their swagger back--look for a 2-1 turnover ratio that will be enough.

2012 vs. 2011: Post Free Agency Edition--QB's and RB's

A lot has been written about the state of the Bears in 2011.  Most of it has been emotional and negative.  So I thought it would be valuable to take the opposite tack and give an objective viewpoint (spoiler: when you look at the Bears new additions and returning players for 2011, the roster is VASTLY improved when viewed objectively). Note: For some positions I've named the roster as currently constituted--at the end of the preseason many of the players I've listed for 2011 will be cut in order to get the roster down to 53 players.  The first look is at the Quarterbacks and Running Backs.
Quarterback:
2010--Cutler, Collins, Hanie

2011--Cutler, Hanie, Enderle

Winner: 2011

Comment: Any unit that no longer has Todd Collins on it is VASTLY improved.  Hanie received some invaluable experience in the NFC Championship game that will assist in his development, and it's good to see a third QB that the Bears can develop.  Plus, Cutler is in the second year of the Martz offense, and has reported "in the best shape of his career" according to Lovie Smith.

Running Back/H-Back: 

2010--Forte, Taylor, Bell, Wolfe, Manumaleuna

2011--Forte, Barber, Taylor, Bell, Unga

Winner: 2011

Comment: Forte is now established as a legitimate upper tier running back, and has taken steps to be closer to the "Marshall Faulk" type that Martz wants at the running back spot through his receiving ability.  Barber and Taylor will push eachother in training camp, with the winner (hopefully Barber) serving as a compliment to Forte and a short yardage back.  Look for Bell to make the squad as the 3rd running back, as this position on the Bears requires Special Teams duties, which neither Taylor or Barber has done as an NFL player in the past.  Look for Unga to possibly replace the position Manumaleuna occupied last year, but as a more conventional fullback type.  Manumaleuna was out of shape and thus did not help in short yardage situations last year.  Hopefully Unga is hungry and ready to block when needed. Bottom line: I'll take Barber's skillset for what this team needs over Taylor's, and Forte has another year under his belt in the Martz system and is still well within his prime.

Hopeful? Starting to feel disconnected...

I just read a great piece by Chris Collinsworth on his Football Pros blog. The point of his post was that the players are playing with fire by making us (fans) transfer our "we" feelings associated with our favorite team into "they" feelings. In the short term, I agree.

I am currently a Manager of Human Resources employees, and in every strategic decision I make I am obligated to ask myself "how will this impact my customers?" In following many of the players on Twitter, I don't get the feeling that they feel this obligation as they are making their strategic decisions.  Also, I've noticed that they could use a few customer service classes, as if my employees employed the level of "empathy" that they use in their responses to upset customers I would have them placed under corrective action.

I mentioned that I agree with Collinsworth in the short-term. If the players/owners are able to come to an agreement so we can all have our football Sundays, Mondays, and Thursdays in the fall, then NFL football is too big a part of all of us for us not to come back in droves, keeping that emotional "we" feeling intact. Long-term, fans will forget, but only if no games are missed and the quality of the product is at the level of which we are accustomed. However, if we are continually force-fed the business aspect, which continues to show no regard to the customer, we will become disenchanted and may find other things to do with our beautiful fall Sundays.  Get it done, guys, and make sure that the first words out of your mouths are "thank you" to your customers.

Decompression over, time to recap...

Well, when all is said and done, no one can argue that it was a season to remember.  Going in, only the most hopeful of us would have predicted an NFC Championship appearance, so it has to be said that this season was a resounding success.  What is disappointing, however, is that teams have trouble getting to Championship games on a yearly basis, so you have to wonder when the Bears will get back to these heights again.  This is also beginning to be an aging team (especially on defense) so the famous "window" of opportunity, while not completely shut, may be closing.  Here are some observations from, as I wrote previously, the biggest game of our lives.  And some thoughts for next year and beyond:

• Brian Urlacher should have scored on that interception return.  Ray Lewis doesn't get tackled there (maybe why Ray Lewis has a ring and Urlacher doesn't).
• If it saves the Bears some money that they can use elsewhere, I have no problem with the idea of cutting Chester Taylor.  Forte is a full-time guy, and the Bears can draft a complement in the middle rounds or bring in a second or third tier free agent.  Taylor seems to have lost a step, and he'll only get worse as he gets older.
• The Bears need a BIG wide receiver.  I'm not sure Canadian superstar Andy Fantuz is the answer, but I like the direction.  Cutler needs a guy he can trust to go up and get it.  Cutler loves taking chances and giving his wide receivers a chance to make a play, now he just needs a guy who can do it.
• I like Frank Omiyale more as a 3rd swing type tackle than as my starting left tackle.  If the Bears can bring in someone to compete at that position, along with another guard, they will be much improved next year.  Good move to keep Mike Tice where he is as there was noticeable improvement by the end of the year on the line.
• Caleb Hanie should be the 2nd stringer next year--he brings exactly what you want--knowledge of the offense and a little unpredictability in the role.
• So long Tommie Harris--I don't see him back next year.  I hope the Bears do bring back Pisa Tinoisamoa though.
• Bob Sanders was just released by the Colts--I wonder if he'd be a good fit in the cover-2?
• Finally, some thoughts on Jay Cutler.  When you're hurt, you're hurt, but Jay does not do himself any favors with his attitude towards the media and fans.  He leaves himself no margin for error, and as a result many fans/media/other players jump all over him at every opportunity.  The thing that made me the most upset about Jay was his poor performance in the championship game, as I thought that he was going to show up big time after his great performance in the Divisional round. My hope is that he uses this experience to motivate him to be the best he can be next year, as the Bears will always go as far as he takes them.  If the Bears can put a few more pieces around him, watch out.

I'll be back with some Draft thoughts in the coming weeks.  Thanks to everyone for reading this year, I hope you got as much out of reading this as I did writing it.  Go Bears!