If the NFC Playoffs Started Today, Through Week 12. 5 weeks to go...

NFC Seed	Team	Overall	Division	Conference	Next 2
1 (NFC South Champion)	Atlanta Falcons	9--2	2--0	6--1	TB, CAR
2 (NFC North Champion)	Chicago Bears	8--3	3--0	6--3	DET, NE
3 (NFC East Champion)	Philadelphia Eagles	7--4	2--1	5--3	HOU, DAL
4 (NFC West Champion)	St. Louis Rams	5--6	1--2	3--5	ARI, NO
5 (1st Wild Card)	New Orleans Saints	8--3	3--1	7--2	CIN, STL
6 (2nd Wild Card-Tie)	NY Giants	7--4	1--2	5--2	WSH, MIN
6 (2nd Wild Card-Tie)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7--4	2--2	5--2	ATL, WSH
8	Green Bay Packers	7--4	3--1	5--3	SF, DET
9	Seattle Seahawks	5--6	3--1	4--3	CAR, SF
10	Washington Redskins	5--6	2--1	4--4	NYG, TB
11	Minnesota Vikings	4--7	1--3	4--4	BUF, NYG
12	San Francisco 49ers	4--7	2--1	2--6	GB, SEA
13	Arizona Cardinals	3--8	1--3	2--6	STL, DEN
14	Dallas Cowboys	3--8	1--2	2--6	IND, PHI
15	Detroit Lions	2--9	0--3	2--6	CHI, GB
Eliminated	Carolina Panthers

Legitimacy calls...Bears ready to answer?

It was a LOOONG two weeks.  I'm referring to the timeframe between October 24th and November 7th.  The Bears had just lost  their second game in a row, at home, to an inferior NFC opponent.  Things were looking bleak, as Jay Cutler had just had one of his worst games as a Bear (4 interceptions), Mike Martz seemed clueless in calling a largely disproportionate amount of passing plays, and the offensive line couldn't have blocked my high school defensive line.  The defense and special teams looked ok, but by no means dominant, and many were picking the Bears to lose to a winless (at the time) Buffalo Bills squad to drop all the way back to .500.  Again, it was a long two weeks.  Well, it's been a lot of fun since then, as the Bears have looked impressive in defeating the Bills, Vikings and Dolphins (2 of the three wins occurring on the road) by a combined score of 65-32.  Jay Cutler has been efficient, in part by finding a way to keep defenses honest through the use of the occasional scramble.  Mike Martz has found balance (if you've been a regular reader of this blog you know I've been saying all year that one of the most critical learning curves for this team will be Martz's, and he has responded like a man who is interested in continuing a career in coaching), and the defense and special teams have been amongst the best in the league.  The Offensive line has even improved, with much attributable to a healthy Roberto Garza.

Now the Philadelphia Eagles come to town.  Much like when the Green Bay Packers came to town in Week 3, this game is being described as the measuring stick.  Win and the Bears are for real.  Lose, and the media and fans will still have their doubts.  This game also has big-time wild-card ramifications, as the Bears all ready have 3 conference losses and may not be able to afford a fourth (especially to a team who they will be battling with for a wild-card if the Bears aren't able to keep their division lead on the Cheeseheads).  Here are 4 reasons to fear, as well as hope, going into Sunday's post-Thanksgiving treat:

"Hope is a dangerous thing.  Hope can drive a man insane.":

• 2 words: Mike Vick. Vick has been like Bo Jackson circa Super Techmo Bowl this year, as he's making it look like everyone else is playing in quicksand.  The Bears live for the takeaway, and Vick has 1, yes 1, all year.  Give him time and he'll pick you apart either with his arm or his feet.
• The Eagles speedy wide receivers will pose a big test to the Bears secondary, as speed is not their specialty (outside of Danieal Manning).  Chris Harris especially will have to be a step ahead mentally to avoid being a step slow on the Eagles deep routes.
• The Eagles still have that Jim Johnson mentality on defense--Blitz, Blitz, Blitz.  The Bears will need to continue to play better on the o-line and utilize screen passes while keeping their run/pass balance to slow the Eagles down.  Trent Cole is a beast who will need to be double-teamed.
• Instead of mentioning Desean Jackson returning punts or Asante Samuel against Jay Cutler, I'm going to devote my fourth item to Mike Vick.  Yes, I realize he was also the first item, but he's just that good.  He is perhaps the league MVP and if the Bears want to win they CAN NOT afford to let him go off.

"Hope is a good thing.  Maybe the best of things..."

• In watching Giants/Eagles on Sunday night, it was pointed out on the broadcast that Vick doesn't tend to throw once he rolls to his right (as a lefty this is probably due to him not being as comfortable throwing across his body).  The Bears should line Julius Peppers up on the Right End--where he should then able to pressure Vick and push him out of the pocket towards Lance Briggs, who will be able to contain Vick from his weak-side linebacker spot.  I wouldn't mind seeing Briggs come on some delayed blitzes as well from his spot on the right side of Vick.
• The Bears will have to score more than 24 points to win this game, and I don't see this as an issue because I foresee a big game from Cutler.  The Bears recent run/pass balance has freed up some opportunities down the field for Cutler, often through the use of play-action.  I see a bomb to Devin Hester or Johnny Knox in our future.
• The Bears are 3-0 versus Mike Vick in his career, and even though Vick is playing at a different level right now this is not a coincidence or an aberration.  The Bears team speed on defense has always matched up well against Vick, and the frozen, soggy turf (along with the climate) has never been agreeable for him.  The Bears cover-2 defense also helps prevent the big pass play which has been a Vick staple.  Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, or even D.J. Moore can serve as a "spy" to help neutralize him on the ground.
• Takeaways are always huge for the Bears, and this game will be no different.  Another item I noticed on Sunday night is that Vick often holds the ball away from his body when he's running, and the Bears are notorious for causing fumbles.  Also, the Bears are very adept on the defensive line (namely Israel Idonije) at getting their hands up to tip passes.  Look for one to fall into the hands of a Bears defender (Moore, I'm looking for you to continue your knack for being in the right place at the right time--don't let me down).

The Verdict: Biggest game of the year.  There will be a playoff atmosphere.  I can't wait, and I hope that all the fans in attendance make Mikey want to run home to Mommy.  Bears 27 Eagles 24.  Hello legitimacy, nice to see you.  Sit a spell.  Take your shoes off.

Bears vs. Dolphins, a Preview...

Just a few short weeks ago, this week's game looked as if it would be a tough one for our Beloved Bears. But if we have learned anything in this crazy NFL season, it is that things CHANGE from one week to the next, and that what you think you know for sure absolutely without a doubt this week may be COMPLETELY wrong after another week's worth of games.  The two items that I feel most strongly about this week are 1) the Bears are playing with a confidence level that we haven't seen all year, and 2) the Dolphins are down to their 3rd string QB.  This will by no means be a walk-over for the Bears, however, and with that in mind here are some items that inspire hope and others that inspire fear:

"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things":

• Jay Cutler had arguably the best performance of his career on a Thursday night with the Broncos early in his career, throwing 3 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter to lead his team to a win.
• The Dolphins aforementioned injury issues--not only are they missing their top 2 quarterbacks, they are playing with their best offensive lineman (and possibly their best player) Jake Long and their best defensive lineman (Cameron Wake--who has 8.5 sacks) at less than their best as both are playing through the pain.
• The Bears match up well against the Wildcat package based on their team speed on defense and their solid tackling as of late (see below, however, as they are lacking in preparation time).
• The Dolphins fired their Special Teams coach earlier this year after a DISASTROUS performance against the Patriots.  Devin Hester is 1 return TD away from the record, AND is going to his hometown, AND is returning to the scene of the biggest play of his career (returning the opening kickoff of Super Bowl XLI).  Watch out here, Fins....

"Hey Lady, You're Scaring Us!"

• Pisa Tonoisamoa will miss this game with a knee injury, which will hurt but not as much as if the Bears didn't have a capable backup in Nick Roach.
• Jay Cutler had arguably the worst performance of his career last year on a Thursday night, when he threw 5 interceptions against the 49ers in San Francisco.
• Mike Nolan, the Dolphins Defensive Coordinator, is a big believer in the utilization of exotic blitzes. Often he'll bring his secondary and is adept at disguising who is coming after the QB.  The Bears have struggled throughout the year both with blitz identification and pickup.
• The Bears are going on the road for a Thursday night game, which is never easy as they haven't gotten in a lot of preparation for this game (only had one full practice on Tuesday).  This could be especially problematic since the Bears will have to deal with the unique Wildcat offense, which could be utilized extensively due to the Dolphins being on their third string QB.

The Verdict: I look for a somewhat crazy, higher scoring game than normal due to the short week and injuries on the Dolphins side.  Bears 28 Fins 17. Ya Heard Me!

If the NFC Playoffs Started Today, Through Week 10

NFC Seed	Team	Overall	Division	Conference	Next 2
1 (NFC South Champion)	Atlanta Falcons	7--2	2--0	4--1	STL, GB
2 (NFC East Champion)	NY Giants	6--3	1--1	5--1	PHI, JAX
3 (NFC North Champion)	Chicago Bears	6--3	3--0	5--3	MIA, PHI
4 (NFC West Champion)	Seattle Seahawks	5--4	3--1	4--2	NO, KC
5 (1st Wild Card)	New Orleans Saints	6--3	3--1	5--2	SEA, DAL
6 (2nd Wild Card-Tie)	Green Bay Packers	6--3	2--1	4--2	MIN, ATL
6 (2nd Wild Card-Tie)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6--3	2--2	4--2	SF, BAL
8	Philadelphia Eagles	6--3	1--1	4--2	NYG, CHI
9	St. Louis Rams	4--5	1--2	3--4	ATL, DEN
10	Washington Redskins	4--5	2--1	3--4	TEN, MIN
11	Minnesota Vikings	3--6	1--2	3--3	GB, WAS
12	Arizona Cardinals	3--6	1--3	2--5	KC, SF
13	San Francisco 49ers	3--6	1--2	1--5	TB, ARI
14	Detroit Lions	2--7	1--3	2--5	DAL, NE
15	Dallas Cowboys	2--7	1--2	1--5	DET, NO
16	Carolina Panthers	1--8	0--4	1--7	BAL, CLE

Hope rides again!

All year, we've been waiting for that dominant Bears performance.  Well Bears fans, I think we just witnessed it.  And not only that, it could be the precursor for an improved Bears team to make their playoff run with 7 games remaining in the season.  A few observations from a Happy, Hopeful Bears Fan:

• I've written on this blog in the past that a big key to the Bears success this year will be the evolution of Mike Martz, both in his understanding of the personnel on this team and the ability of Jay Cutler to grasp it.  The bye week seems to have been a turning point of sorts, and the last two weeks Martz has learned that a balance of runs/passes is needed, and Cutler has learned that if he can limit his mistakes (utilize checkdowns, scramble when it is available, throw the ball away) this team will win with their dominant defense and special teams.
• Devin Hester was the kick returner today, and he made an impact.  I don't fault the Bears for trying Hester as their #1 receiver, but I think they have found his niche.  Namely, returner and part-time receiver.  Knox is your #1, Bennett your #2, Hester #3 and Aromashadu #4 (possibly with more playing time to come).  Rashied Davis also had an impact today.  
• I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bears continue to utilize more 2-3 tight end sets.  This would give Olsen the opportunity to be a receiver first and a blocker second, and would help out the improving Offensive Line.
• Balance on offense leads directly to improved third down percentage.  The Bears were over 50% in this department today, and a big part of the reason why can be attributed to Cutler having more time to make things happen with his feet, allowing his receivers to find the soft spots in zone coverage.
• Excellent tackling today.  Gold star to Lance Briggs who had a few nice open field tackles and the Vikings big playmakers (Peterson, Harvin).

Check back all week for updates on where the Bears stand in the race for the tournament, news and predictions.  It's a short week, gear up for Thursday Bears fans!!

Time to Shake the Lake Bears Fans!

I was planning on giving an X's and O's analysis for what the Bears need to do to win this game against the Vikings (ahh, what the heck--one fact.  Julius Peppers OWNED Bryant McKinnie last year, and I don't see why that can't be repeated this year).  But instead, I want to talk about what we, as true Bears fans, can do to help the Bears beat the Vikings in what may be THE game of the year, both in importance and quality.  These RIVALRY games make me want to be out there on the field cracking some shoulder pads, so forgive me if I'm analyzing more here with my heart than I am with my head.

The Bears are 3-1 on the road this year, which is a record to be proud of according to conventional NFL wisdom.  However, they are only 2-2 at Soldier Field, which is not so good.  There has been a lot of negativity swirling the Bears this year, despite their winning record and the fact that a victory would put them in first place (via tiebreaker) with only 7 games remaining in the season.  Now I can understand all the negativity from the media, as they are supposed to be objective and everyone knows that a story leading with "Everything is Great!" doesn't sell newspapers.  What I can't understand is all the negativity from Bears fans this year.  The reason I don't understand it is I don't know what it brings you, as a fan, to "hate on" your team, especially when they are 5-3 and in contention for the tournament.

We only get 1 season of 16 Sundays, and once it is over we can then focus on what needs to be done to make the team better for next year.  But during the year, as fans, we have to root for the team we've been dealt.  And for this 1 game, right here, we all need to put that negativity, sarcasm, and cynicism behind us and support the team with all that we have.  It has been shown in this series that homefield advantage is huge, as in the past Bears teams with less talent than the Vikings have been able to pull out close victories at home due in large part to what we bring to the table.  So let me hear you on Sunday. Let's Go Bears.  Let's Go Bears!  Let's Go Bears!!

Bears 24 Vikings 20

We'll take it (eight) games at a time...

The great thing about being a fan is that, unlike coaches and players, we don't have to "take it one game at a time".  We can look ahead, speculate, and yes, hope.  The Bears stand at 5-3 at the midpoint of the season, and seeing as how 10-6 typically guarantees a playoff spot (and I don't see that being any different this year in a weeeeeeeak NFC), I've laid out below the most realistic shot at the Bears going 5-3 the rest of the way in order to get there:

• Remaining games (8):
• Minnesota (W)--Need to take care of business at home against the Vikings, where it is always a battle between these two squads.  Many of the Vikings "skill" position players are somewhat banged up (Favre, Harvin, Rice) but the one who always hurts the Bears most is Adrian Peterson.  If the Bears can find a way to contain Peterson and catch 1-2 of the balls you know Brett Favre will throw to the wrong color jersey, the Bears should have a fighting chance.  Won't be easy, though (I'll have a more detailed preview of this game tomorrow).
• @Miami (W)--This game isn't as tough as it looked earlier this season.  The Dolphins are in a bit of turmoil, as is evidenced by the benching of their starting quarterback (Chad Pennington has replaced Chad Henne).  Bears could come out with the win if they make a big play or two on special teams (see Miami vs. New England game from earlier this year) and gear up to stop Miami's running game.
• Philadelphia (W)--Bears have always matched up well against Vick with their defense built for speed.  This will be the game they have to win to make up for the loss to the Redskins earlier this year (for conference tiebreaker purposes).  With the Packers starting to put it together this game will be critical if the Bears want to get into the tournament with a wild card as opposed to winning their division.
• @Detroit (W)--Need to have it as the last 4 games are rough.  Cutler has played pretty well against the Lions in his time with the Bears thus far.  Matthew Stafford being out for the year doesn't hurt.  They'll have to find a way to block the BEAST Ndamakung Suh though.
• New England (L)--Tom Brady, Wes Welker and Bill Belichek are too much to handle--even at home.  This team is just too well-coached, and will outmaneuver the Bears.  Until proven otherwise, I can't pick a Lovie Smith-coached team to beat a Bill Belichek-coached team.   
• @Minnesota (L)--The "Humpdome" has been a House of Horrors for the Bears.  In Favre's final game against the beloved (if he isn't injured or suspended) he shows us Bears fans one more time why we will all uncork the Champagne when he (finally) retires.  Sidney Rice should be at full strength by this game as well.
• New York Jets (W)--Call me crazy, but there is always one AFC team a year that the Bears aren't supposed to beat but end up beating (especially at home).  The Jets may have clinched by now as well.  The Bears will have to grind one out but I think they can--and I wouldn't rule out a few picks from the Sanchize. The Jets performance the last couple of weeks against the Packers and Lions reinforces my belief in this one.
• @Green Bay (L)--This could be for the division, and I think the Packers will be ready at home for some payback.  You never know, if things go according to plan the Bears and Packers might be meeting again in the Wild Card round.  Would be quite the scene.

What do you all think--do the Bears have a shot? 

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If the NFC Playoffs Started Today, Through Week 9. 8 weeks to go...

NFC Seed	Team	Overall	Division	Conference	Next 2
1 (NFC East Champion)	NY Giants	6--2	1--0	5--0	DAL, PHI
2 (NFC South Champion)	Atlanta Falcons	6--2	2--0	4--1	BAL, STL
3 (NFC North Champion)	Green Bay Packers	6--3	2--1	4--2	BYE, MIN
4 (NFC West Champion)	St. Louis Rams	4--4	1--1	3--3	SF, ATL
5 (1st Wild Card)	New Orleans Saints	6--3	3--1	5--2	BYE, SEA
6 (2nd Wild Card-Tie)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5--3	1--2	3--2	CAR, SF
6 (2nd Wild Card-Tie)	Philadelphia Eagles	5--3	0--1	3--2	WSH, NYG
8	Chicago Bears	5--3	2--0	4--3	MIN, MIA
9	Seattle Seahawks	4--4	2--1	3--2	ARI, NO
10	Washington Redskins	4--4	2--0	3--3	PHI, TEN
11	Minnesota Vikings	3--5	1--1	3--2	CHI, GB
12	Arizona Cardinals	3--5	1--1	2--4	SEA, KC
13	Detroit Lions	2--6	0--3	2--5	BUF, DAL
14	San Francisco 49ers	2--6	0--1	0--5	STL, TB
15	Carolina Panthers	1--7	0--3	1--6	TB, BAL
16	Dallas Cowboys	1--7	0--2	0--5	NYG, DET

Bears set to play Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Bruce Smith and the Bills on Sunday...

The Buffalo Bills are 0-7. Let me repeat that, 0-7.  Yet, to hear the "experts" call it, they are primed for a Super Bowl run.  Albeit with their history it would be another losing one.  This notion is based on the Bills taking the Ravens and Chiefs to overtime.  The Ravens were FLAT in that game (kind of like the Bears were in their loss against the Seahawks) and the Chiefs aren't that good.  Period.  Everyone is down on the Bears, which seems to be the time when they step up and prove everybody wrong.  This is that time.  The Bears will be ready for this game.  Off a bye and two disappointing losses, they will NOT be flat for this game.  The Bears flat out-talent the Bills.  The only area that concerns me are the Bills receivers with Zach Bowman out.  But I see the Bears combating that concern with a big game from their Defensive Line (namely Julius Peppers).  Jay Cutler will bounce back--don't discount the return of a healthy Roberto Garza next to an improving Jamarcus Webb off of a bye week.  Bears 27 Bills 13.  Book it.

NFC Playoff Race, through Week 8...

NFC Seed	Team	Overall Record	Division	Conference	Next 3
1 (NFC East Champion)	NY Giants	5--2	1--0	4--0	SEA, DAL, PHI
2 (NFC South Champion)	Atlanta Falcons	5--2	1--0	3--1	TB, BAL, STL
3 (NFC North Champion)	Green Bay Packers	5--3	2--1	3--2	DAL, BYE, MIN
4 (NFC West Champion)	Seattle Seahawks	4--3	2--1	3--1	NYG, ARI, NO
5 (1st Wild Card)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5--2	1--1	3--1	ATL, CAR, SF
6 (2nd Wild Card)	New Orleans Saints	5--3	2--1	4--2	CAR, BYE, SEA
7	Philadelphia Eagles	4--3	0--1	3--2	IND, WSH, NYG
8	Chicago Bears	4--3	2--0	4--3	BUF, MIN, MIA
9	Washington Redskins	4--4	2--0	3--3	BYE, PHI, TEN
10	St. Louis Rams	4--4	1--1	3--3	BYE, SF, ATL
11	Arizona Cardinals	3--4	1--1	2--3	MIN, SEA, KC
12	Minnesota Vikings	2--5	1--1	2--2	ARI, CHI, GB
13	Detroit Lions	2--5	0--3	2--5	NYJ, BUF, DAL
14	San Francisco 49ers	2--6	0--1	0--5	BYE, STL, TB
15	Carolina Panthers	1--6	0--2	1--5	NO, TB, BAL
16	Dallas Cowboys	1--6	0--2	0--4	GB, NYG, DET

Sidebar of the week: Moss to the Bears...would he be a good fit?

It appears that Randy Moss will be waived by the Minnesota Vikings in a move that I don't quite understand.  The Vikings and Brad Childress knew what they were getting when they traded a 3rd Round pick to acquire Moss--a talented, big-play, game-changing malcontent who doesn't give maximum effort on every play.  And while Moss hasn't necessarily torn it up for the Vikings, he has made their team better by commanding double-teams and opening up the field for the Vikings best playmakers--Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin.  That being said, I vote a resounding NO to the Bears looking to pick up Moss, and here is why:

• He isn't a good fit in Mike Martz's offense.  Jay Cutler has been learning Martz's offense these first 7 games, and what is starting to sink in (especially after last game's 4-interception performance against the Redskins) is that it is a timing and precision offense, not a "throw it up and go-get-it offense".  Adding Moss would not add to Cutler's education in Martz's offense.
• I can't take a guy who can't give maximum effort on every play, and I'm just a fan.  I don't know how teammates and coaches can see that and live with it.
• Moss seems to only want to play with Hall-of-Fame type quarterbacks--Cutler is not in that class (yet).  Moss would get frustrated with a quarterback as inconsistent as Cutler is right now with his accuracy.

If I had to guess, I would say that Moss will end up with the Patriots, Jets, Redskins, or Chiefs.  Quite a story--makes Jerry Angelo look like a genius in comparison.  What do you all think?

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