Who's lucky??

"The Bears are lucky".  That is what we keep hearing, right?  The media keeps repeating it to the point that it seems like gospel at this point. The touchdown that wasn't (Calvin Johnson), the third string quarterbacks (Detroit, Miami, Minnesota), the injuries (Philly), the penalties (Green Bay), the weather (Minnesota, NY Jets).  Well, I'm here to dispel The "Myth of the Season" with the following facts:

-The Bears beat the Cowboys with Tony Romo

-The Bears beat the Packers with Jermichael Finley, pre-concussed Aaron Rodgers, Nick Barnett, etc.

-The Bears would have beaten the Lions, Dolphins, and Vikings even with their "Hall of Fame" first-string quarterbacks (Matthew Stafford, Chad Henne(!!) and Brett Favre (old version).  In fact, in two of these games the Bears were the ones to knock out the starter, doesn't that count for anything??  Oh, and I will be looking for the experts to be saying how lucky the Eagles now are, since they will play Joe Webb and Steven McGee in their last two games.  Something tells me that I shouldn't hold my breath.

-The Packers are a highly penalized team--that's just WHO THEY ARE.   When they committed 17 penalties against the Bears earlier this year, it was a bit above average for them but not by much.

-Bears "were lucky" that they were able to play the Panthers the one week that Jay Cutler was out.  But I don't here any criticism levied at the Packers for not taking care of business in similar fashion against the similarly terrible Detroit Lions when they were without their starting qb.  A WIN IS A WIN.

-The Bears "haven't played or beaten anybody".  Let's take a deeper dive into that claim.  The Bears have beaten 3 probable/definite playoff teams (Eagles, Packers, Jets).  How do the other NFC playoff teams stack up in this regard (not counting the putrid NFC West)?  

• Packers have beaten 3 (Eagles--without Michael Vick starting by the way, Jets, and Giants)
• Eagles have beaten 4 (Atlanta, Indy, Giants twice)
• Falcons have beaten 3 (New Orleans, Baltimore, Green Bay)
• Saints have beaten 2 (Pittsburgh, Atlanta)
• Giants have beaten 1 (Chicago)

Bottom line--the Chicago Bears have a GOOD team, and have as good of a chance as anyone else to go to the Super Bowl this year.  Don't listen to the media--they just don't like "boring" Lovie Smith and "petulant" Jay Cutler.  Bear down and be proud of your team, they've earned it.

Division Champs!

What a night.  More to come as we prepare for the playoffs but I feel great for the following guys tonight:
-Jay Cutler--first time in the playoffs for him and he stepped up in a big way tonight
-Devin Hester--breaks the record for returns for touchdowns in a career (he almost had a couple before breaking it too--what a "ridiculous" athlete)
-Lovie Smith--just keep winning baby--the media doesn't like the way you do it because it's not flashy but I'll take 10-4 and the North Championship baby!
-Julius Peppers--been playing his butt off all year and made a couple of freakish plays tonight
-Chris Harris--after an early bad missed tackle turned it around in a big way with some huge hits and a big interception

Bears looked dominant tonight--what a way to respond to a bad outing last week.  They control their own destiny for the #2 seed, which means a bye and a home playoff game.  Keep the focus for the Jets and Pack and let's get after it!  Congrats men.

Pictures from yesterday's Bears Practice at Northwestern!

See below for some pics from yesterday's practice at Northwestern's practice field.  While it was cool to watch the Bears practice in my backyard, this story: http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/12/vikings-kluwe-tcf-stadium-field-unplayable.html has me really concerned about the health of our Bears.  It would really be a shame if there are a rash of injuries that ruin the Bears season tomorrow, but I guess as long as the Vikings maximize their revenue everyone should be happy, right?  What a joke.  They are really running a bush league organization up there in Minnesota, and the Bears players are the ones paying for the league's and the Wilf's greed.  Players like Chris Harris, Charles Tillman and Robbie Gould who have spoken out this week should be applauded.  My hope is that the practice yesterday at NU helped ease their minds a little bit and the Bears are able to use that, along with facing a third-string QB (Joe Webb) to their advantage in hopefully clinching another division title for the beloved tomorrow.  If any of the players get hurt they should sue the league for negligence, though.  Can we fine Roger Goodell $100,000 for leading with his wallet?

It's pretty simple, actually

Bears win this week against the Vikings, who will possibly be starting Patrick Ramsey (who was bagging groceries earlier this week), along with a Packers loss to the Patriots at Foxboro (with the immortal Matt Flynn at the helm) and the Bears win the NFC North.  Nothing else matters--once you get in the tournament, anything can happen.  Further, the Bears are in pretty good position to be the 2nd seed in the NFC, with games left against the Vikings, Jets (who have been slumping) and Packers (who may not have Rodgers) left.  All Bears fans should also be Eagles fans for the rest of the year, as we hold the tiebreaker against the Eagles and not the Giants (which is why we want to be fighting for the 2nd seed with the Eagles and not the Giants).

Keep your eyes on the prize, Bears fans.  I would have loved a win against the Pats too, but the most important thing that happened on Sunday was the good ole Detroit Lions beating the Cheeseheads.  Enjoy this run, we are on the cusp of the PLAYOFFS!!  Any team that has a chip and a chair, has a chance.

So, how do you beat Joe Montana (I mean, Tom Brady) and the Patriots?

As a Hopeful Bears Fan loyal reader, there are a few things you have come to expect from me.  I will post the Bears playoff chances every week.  I'll post the "Sidebar of the Week" about every month.  And I'll pick the Bears to win.  Well, this week is the first week that I am tempted to buck that trend and pick a Bears loss.  This is due to:

• The aforementioned Joe Montanability of Tom Brady, in that he is one of the smartest players in the NFL and knows the Patriots offense COLD.
• The fact that the Patriots have a +14 turnover ratio, and the Bears defense thrives on takeaways.
• Tom Brady, unlike a lot of other quarterbacks, will have the patience to take the 4-8 yards the Bears allow on a regular basis through short passes all the way down the field.
• Bill Belicheck.  Nuff said.

Well, maybe not nuff said.  I can't, in good conscience, pick against the Bears.  I'm sorry, I just can't do it, it would be going against my namesake and my nature, so it ain't gonna happen.  So, here is why they can and will win this game:

• Two factors that have nothing to do with either team--the schedule makers and Old Man Winter.  This is a home game for the Bears and the weather is looking downright evil (15 degrees, 40 mph winds, snow).  I know that both teams come from cold-weather environments, but the Bears team is better suited for a bad-weather game because they rely on their defense and special teams.  Also, the Bears have a better running game right now and have the horses to pound the rock all game with Matt Forte and Chester Taylor.
• Jay Cutler is riding high right now, and the Bears have been mastering their short, quick passes lately.  These will be needed in the aforementioned bad weather as well as if the Patriots decide to blitz.
• Devin Hester almost broke another return for a touchdown last game.
• The Patriots are near the bottom of the league in defense, and have no dominant pass-rushers.  This means that the Patriots will not be able to take full advantage of the Bears weakness (Offensive Line).

Prediction: Bears 20 -- New England 17 (And all the Bears fans at Soldier will feel as if it is 70 degrees outside--with some help from their flasks of course)

If the NFC Playoffs Started Today, Through Week 13. 4 weeks to go...

NFC Seed	Team	Overall	Division	Conference	Next 2
1 (NFC South Champion)	Atlanta Falcons	10--2	3--0	7--1	CAR, SEA
2 (NFC North Champion)	Chicago Bears	9--3	4--0	7--3	NE, MIN
3 (NFC East Champion)	Philadelphia Eagles	8--4	2--1	5--3	DAL, NYG
4 (NFC West Champion)	St. Louis Rams	6--6	2--2	4--5	NO, KC
5 (1st Wild Card)	New Orleans Saints	9--3	3--1	7--2	STL, BAL
6 (2nd Wild Card)	NY Giants	8--4	1--2	5--2	MIN, PHI
7	Green Bay Packers	8--4	3--1	6--3	DET, NE
8	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7--5	2--3	5--3	WSH, DET
9	Seattle Seahawks	6--6	3--1	5--3	SF, ATL
10	Washington Redskins	5--7	2--2	4--5	TB, DAL
11	Minnesota Vikings	5--7	1--3	4--4	BUF, NYG
12	Dallas Cowboys	4--8	1--2	2--6	PHI, WSH
13	San Francisco 49ers	4--8	2--1	2--7	SEA, SD
14	Arizona Cardinals	3--9	1--4	2--7	DEN, CAR
Eliminated	Detroit Lions
Eliminated	Carolina Panthers

Sidebar of the week

Ron Santo tribute - 2010 - Rare Photos of Ron Santo - Photos - SI.com

Click on the above link to see some photos of Ron Santo, who passed away today of bladder cancer and complications from Diabetes.

Ron Santo came into my life when I was 10 years old. I was playing traveling baseball at the time, and upon being diagnosed with Type 1 Diabetes one of the parents of a teammate had a connection to Ronnie. Through this connection, Ron was given my name and phone number, and gave me a call at home to provide me with a few words of encouragement. I still remember him asking me about the sports I played, position etc., and saying that as long as I kept my Diabetes in control I could do anything I wanted in this life. Even though it was just a few minutes, I'll remember the conversation for the rest of my life.

A big part of what has really made me believe that I didn't have to be limited by Diabetes (along with my wife and my parents, who give me the strength to never have to feel sorry for myself) was watching Ronnie's positive attitude throughout the years, even after having both legs amputated and other associated health issues. He showed that passion, joy and reaching out to those around you (both at the ballpark and during his "Walks for the Cure") can help you overcome any obstacle. What is surprising to those of us who have Diabetes is that Ronnie was able to play professional baseball without the benefit of a glucometer--basically "driving blind" through all those games, through all those years.

While there are athletes out there (Jay Cutler, for one) who play at the top of their professions with Type 1 Diabetes and show the rest of us that anything is possible while living with this disease, it is people like Ronnie who show us that we are not only physically but spiritually limitless. God Bless you Ronnie. I hear in heaven that even the Cubbies win the World Series every once in a while.

Bears Playoff Chances--Computer and Hopeful Bears Fan Simulated. Plus a quick take on Bears vs. Lions

For years I've been interested, around this time of year, in what the Bears playoff chances were.  In the past, I've used the site www.coolstandings.com, which currently gives the Bears a 43.4% chance of winning their division and a 64.8% chance of winning their division.  This year, I also found a site called makenflplayoffs.com which gives the Bears a 69% chance of winning their division and an 82% chance of making the playoffs (can you guess which site I like more?).  However, I found what is referred to as "the Playoff Machine" on espn.com, and for lack of a better term, it is really cool.  Instead of using complicated formulas/simulations and spitting a number out at you, it allows you to pick every game, for every team, for the remainder of the year and then tells you who will be in the playoffs, and what seed they will be, when the playoffs begin.  The Playoff Machine also allows you to see what will happen if games end the way they are supposed to for the rest of the year (i.e. the team with the better winning percentage wins every game).  I've taken some scenarios, so you don't have to, and listed them below:

• If all games are won by the team with the better winning percentage, the Bears would be the 3rd seed and would host the New York Giants in the first round of the playoffs.
• If all games are won by the home team, the Bears would finish 10-6 and miss the playoffs.
• If all games are won by the team ranked higher in ESPN's Power Rankings, the Bears would be the 3rd seed and would host the Green Bay Packers in the first round of the playoffs.
• If all games were won by the team with the better offensive rank, the Bears would (not surprisingly) not win another game and miss the playoffs.
• If all games were won by the team with the better defensive rank, the Bears would be the third seed and would host the Atlanta Falcons in the first round of the playoffs.
• Finally, if the games go the way I think they will the rest of the way (Bears beat Detroit, Minnesota, NY Jets and lose to New England and Green Bay) and all other games go according to who has the higher winning percentage right now, the Bears will be the 3rd seed and host the Giants.

Check back each week for an update on where the Bears will stand based on these simulations.  I mentioned that I like the Bears this week, my predicted score is 34-17.  Another 3rd string QB for the opposition and the Bears offense is riding high right now.

I also contribute to www.bitterborderbattle.com, for more Bears and NFC North news check that site out as well.  Go Bears!